Spatial evaluation of habitat suitability outside the Nature Reserves for Asian elephants
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摘要: 栖息地丧失和破碎化已成为野生动物和生物多样性保护面临的最大威胁之一。本研究基于3年（2019—2021）无人机调查收集到的亚洲象分布数据，构建了多变量多尺度物种分布模型，评估了地形地貌、土地利用、线性基础设施和居民点等环境变量对亚洲象分布的影响。在研究期间无人机共监测到10 719个亚洲象分布位点，其中旱季共收集到5 088个分布点，雨季5 630个分布点。研究结果显示，海拔、橡胶林延展度、农田延展度、森林延展度、景观延展度、荒地破碎度、农田破碎度、密林破碎度和道路密度，共9个变量对亚洲象分布的影响比较大。2021年，西双版纳州面积的27%，约5 181 km2为亚洲象适宜栖息地，可容纳约347（187—554）头亚洲象；适宜栖息地主要分布在与普洱临界区域的西双版纳州北部，以及呈斑块状分布在西双版纳州南部的尚勇保护区的西部、东北部和勐腊保护区周边，但北部适宜栖息地内的农田被亚洲象觅食或踩踏的概率高，南部适宜栖息地被橡胶林蚕食的风险高，处于中老缅边境的布龙州级保护区和易武州级保护区分布有少量的亚洲象适宜栖息地。研究结果将为云南亚洲象国家公园的规划和亚洲象种群管理提供有价值的科技支撑。Abstract: Habitat loss and fragmentation is one of the main threats to wildlife and biodiversity conservation. This study collected three years (2019—2021) elephant presence data across the entire Xishuangbanna State, built multiscale multivariable species distribution models to evaluate the impact of topography, land use, linear infrastructure and villages to the probability of elephant presence. We collected a total of 10 710 elephant presence locations, including 1 088 ones in dry season and 5 630 in rainy season. Nine out of 39 predictors influenced the probability of elephant presence most, including elevation, extensiveness of rubber plantation, cropland, mixed forest and landscape, patch density of bare land, cropland and dense forest, and road density. A total of 5 181 km2 occupying 27% of Xishuangbanna state was predicted to be suitable for elephants, supporting approximately 347 (187—554) elephants. Suitable habitat mainly distributed in northern Xishuangbanna adjoining Pu’er and fragmented patches sat in southern Xishuangbanna surrounding Shangyong and Mengla reserves. However, the large area of cropland within the predicted suitable habitat was prone to be raided by elephants while the suitable habitats in Southern Xishuangbanna was at risk of being encroached by rubber plantations. There were small patches of habitat predicted to be suitable in Bulong and Yiwu reserves. This study provided science-based evidence for planning of the to be established Asian elephant national park and management of wild elephant populations in Yunnan Province.
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Keywords:
- Asian elephant /
- habitat /
- fragmentation /
- human elephant conflicts /
- drones
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